![Representational image. Reuters](https://images.firstpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/RTS24KHO-3.jpg)
Growth in the working population had now stagnated, the report
said, and the rising number of elderly people will have a far-reaching impact
on the social and economic development in the country, especially if fertility
rates remain low.
"From
a theoretical point of view, the long-term population decline, especially when
it is accompanied by a continuously ageing population, is bound to cause very
unfavourable social and economic consequences," it said.
China's
population is expected to fall back to 1.36 billion by the middle of the
century, it said, which could mean a decline in the workforce of as much as 200
million. If fertility rates remain unchanged, the population could fall to 1.17
billion by 2065, it said.
China
decided in 2016 to relax a controversial "one-child policy" aimed at
curbing population growth and allow all couples to have two children. However,
the country’s birth rate still fell 3.5 percent in 2017 and is expected to have
fallen again last year.
China’s
"dependency rate" or the proportion of non-working people, including
children and the elderly, in the total population rose for the first time in
more than 30 years in 2011, and is widely predicted to increase further for at
least the next few decades.
The
proportion of retirees is projected to rise until 2060, the CASS report said,
and while the decision to relax "one-child" rules was designed to
re-balance China's age structure, in the short term it will also lead to a
greater dependency rate.
According
to previous forecasts, China’s elderly population is expected to reach 400
million by the end of 2035, up from around 240 million last year.
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